In 2023, the demand for OPEC-13 crude oil is anticipated to reach 29.3 million barrels per day (mb/d).
According to the monthly oil market report (MOMR) issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday, November 14.
The report claims that the demand for OPEC-13 crude oil in 2023 will be 29.3 mb/d, which is about 0.7 mb/d higher than in 2022, but is revised down from the previous estimate by 0.2 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude demand for 2022 is revised down from the previous MOMR by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 28.6 mb/d, which is roughly 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021.
According to the report, Nigeria and Iraq saw the biggest increases in OPEC-13 crude oil production in October 2022, while Saudi Arabia and Angola saw decreases.
The report also noted that in October 2022, OPEC-13 crude oil production decreased by 0.21%. The company recorded monthly average production of 29.49 million barrels per day (mb/d) for October 2022 and 29.70 mb/d for September 2022, both of which were down 210 thousand barrels per day from the previous month.
OPEC-13 crude production averaged 28.4 mb/d in Q1/2022, which is 0.3 mb/d less than demand, according to the MOMR. OPEC produced 28.6 mb/d of crude oil on average in Q2 2022, which is 0.2 mb/d more than what was needed. OPEC produced 29.5 mb/d of crude oil on average in Q3 2022, 1.1 mb/d more than what was needed.
Global oil demand
According to the MOMR, global oil demand will reach 101.8 mb/d in 2023. According to the report, “expected geopolitical improvements and the containment of COVID-19 in China support the world oil demand growth in 2023, which is revised down by about 0.1 mb/d to stand at 2.2 mb/d to average 101.8 mb/d.
Factors impacting global oil demand and supply
The world economy has entered a period of great uncertainty and growing challenges, which include high inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, high levels of sovereign debt, tightening labor markets, and persistent supply chain constraints. These indicators can be found in the MOMR. A global slowdown is anticipated to occur as a result of these in 4Q/2022. It’s likely that the slowdown will persist into H1/2023. OPEC predicts a 2.5% increase in global growth in 2023.
For the record, despite a 0.21 percent decrease in OPEC’s crude production for October 2022, Nigerian crude production output rose to over a million barrels per day (mb/d).
Daily production for October 2022, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), was 1.01 mb/d, up from 972K bpd in August and 937K bpd in September.
Based on direct communication, OPEC estimates Nigeria’s crude oil production for October 2022 to be 1.01 mb/d. On the other hand, OPEC estimates Nigeria’s crude oil production at 1.05 mb/d based on secondary sources.
The OPEC report stated that Nigeria’s economic outlook has been impacted by the devastating rains and floods that have affected 31 of Nigeria’s 36 states and caused a significant loss of land, lives, and livelihoods despite recording more than a million barrels per day of crude production in October 2022.
Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela are members of the OPEC-13.